Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 29
7 March 2004Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Michael Owen+2.1
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Gareth Thomas+5.9
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Ben Evans
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Pascal Pape+1.7
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Nicolas Brusque+1.9
Replacements
- 16Yannick Bru
- 17Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Olivier Magne+10.5
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.