Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
8 – 38
12 February 2005Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 9.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Walter Pozzebon
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Giorgio Intoppa
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19David dal Maso
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Matteo Barbini
- 22Kaine Robertson-1.3
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Hal Luscombe
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Robin Sowden-Taylor
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Kevin Morgan+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.