England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 7
12 March 2005Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 4.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Josh Lewsey
- 12Olly Barkley
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Andy Titterrell
- 17Duncan Bell
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Andy Hazell
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Andy Goode
- 22Ollie Smith
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7David dal Maso
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Matteo Barbini
- 14Roberto Pedrazzi
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Giorgio Intoppa
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Mario Savi
- 19Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 20Silvio Orlando
- 21Paul Griffen
- 22Walter Pozzebon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.