Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 46
13 March 2005Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 1.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch(c)
- 3Gavin Kerr
- 4Stuart Grimes
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Simon Taylor
- 7Jon Petrie
- 8Ally Hogg
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Hugo Southwell
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Rory Lamont+0.8
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Bruce Douglas
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Jon Dunbar
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Andrew Henderson-4.3
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Ryan Jones+7.9
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen(c)+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Robin Sowden-Taylor
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Hal Luscombe
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 6 |
| 2 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.