New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 24
3 September 2005Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 12.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Sione Lauaki
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga(c)-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Derren Witcombe
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18James Ryan
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Kevin Senio
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Conrad Smith+4.0
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8George Smith
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Mat Rogers
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Morgan Turinui
- 13Clyde Rathbone
- 14Mark Gerrard
- 15Drew Mitchell+1.7
Replacements
- 16Adam Freier
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Alex Kanaar
- 19John Roe
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Lachie MacKay
- 22Lloyd Johansson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.