France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 31
11 February 2006Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 0.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12David Marty+6.7
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Christophe Dominici-5.2
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Remy Martin
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Benjamin Boyet
- 22Ludovic Valbon
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Johnny O'Connor
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.