Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 18
11 March 2006Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.2 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen(c)+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Matthew Watkins
- 13Hal Luscombe
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Alix Popham+1.5
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Nicky Robinson
- 22Gavin Henson+4.0
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 7Maurizio Zaffiri
- 8Josh Sole
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 15Ezio Galon
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 20Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 21Simon Picone+3.8
- 22Cristian Stoica+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.