South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 45
26 August 2006Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 13.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Johann Muller+4.2
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Solly Tyibilika
- 7Pierre Spies-4.0
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Akona Ndungane
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17BJ Botha
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Pedrie Wannenburg
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 22Andre Pretorius-0.7
New Zealand
- 1Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Greg Rawlinson
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Chris Masoe
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Rico Gear
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 18Chris Jack
- 19Jerry Collins
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Sam Tuitupou
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.