South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 19
16 June 2007DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 14.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11JP Pietersen+0.8
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Gary Botha
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 20Michael Claassens
- 21Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 15Julian Huxley
Replacements
- 16Adam Freier
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19Stephen Hoiles
- 20Phil Waugh
- 21Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 22Mark Gerrard
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.