New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 12
21 July 2007Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.8 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Keith Robinson
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 22Nick Evans
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Stephen Hoiles
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Mark Gerrard
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Adam Freier
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Hugh McMeniman
- 19Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 20Phil Waugh
- 21Scott Staniforth
- 22Chris Latham+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.