New Zealand v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
76 – 14
8 September 2007Orange Velodrome, Marseille · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Italy
- Kick-off
- 11:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 21.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Anton Oliver-0.3
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Chris Masoe
- 19Sione Lauaki
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Roland de Marigny
- 11Marko Stanojevic
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Andrea Masi-5.0
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Manoa Vosawai
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Gonzalo Canale
- 22Ezio Galon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 587m | Carry metres | 300m |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 34 | Offloads | 19 |
| 108 | Passes | 112 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Tackles made | 89 |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 82.3% | Lineout success | 88.9% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 59 | Rucks won | 60 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 2 |
| 9 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.