Wales v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 32
15 September 2007Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 45 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Sonny Parker
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16T.Rhys Thomas
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Michael Owen+2.1
- 19Alix Popham+1.5
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Kevin Morgan+4.7
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan
- 10Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 0Steve R. Walsh
- 16Adam Freier
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19Stephen Hoiles
- 20Phil Waugh
- 21Scott Staniforth
- 22Julian Huxley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 64.0% | Territory | 36.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 360m | Carry metres | 388m |
| 12 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 15 | Offloads | 12 |
| 129 | Passes | 89 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 64.3% | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 11 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.