Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 16
29 September 2007Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 11.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.1 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Rob Dewey
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 22Hugo Southwell
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Andrea Masi-5.0
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Roland de Marigny
- 22Ezio Galon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 103m | Carry metres | 198m |
| 3 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 5 | Offloads | 4 |
| 51 | Passes | 79 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Tackles made | 62 |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 3 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 90.5% | Lineout success | 84.2% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 5 |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.