Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 37
14 October 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 3Martin Scelzo
- 4Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Lucas Ostiglia
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Gonzalo Longo Elia
- 9Agustin Pichot(c)
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 13Manuel Contepomi
- 14Lucas Borges
- 15Ignacio Corleto
Replacements
- 16Alberto Vernet Basualdo
- 17Omar Hasan Jalil
- 18Rimas Alvarez Kairelis
- 19Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 20Nicolas Fernandez Miranda
- 21Federico Todeschini
- 22Gonzalo Tiesi
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 22Wynand Olivier-9.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 338m | Carry metres | 453m |
| 14 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 9 | Offloads | 3 |
| 67 | Passes | 62 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Tackles made | 66 |
| 3 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 55.6% | Lineout success | 94.7% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Rucks won | 28 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 9 |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.