Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 11
2 February 2008Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 3.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Pietro Travagli
- 10Andrea Masi-5.0
- 11Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Tommaso Reato
- 20Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 21Andrea Marcato
- 22Ezio Galon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.