France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 21
9 February 2008Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 3.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Lionel Faure
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Arnaud Mela
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10David Skrela
- 11Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Cedric Heymans-0.6
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Julien Brugnaut
- 18Loic Jacquet
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 22Anthony Floch
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Bernard Jackman
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Denis Leamy+5.0
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Rob Kearney+2.0
- 12Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Simon Easterby-7.8
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Shane Horgan+5.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.