Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 23
10 February 2008Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Pietro Travagli
- 10Andrea Masi-5.0
- 11Ezio Galon
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 19Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Andrea Marcato
- 22Alberto Sgarbi
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Michael Lipman
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Lesley Vainikolo
- 12Toby Flood-1.2
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Jason Hobson
- 18Ben Kay+9.1
- 19Luke Narraway
- 20Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 21Danny Cipriani
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.