Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 8
23 February 2008Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Rhys M. Thomas
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Deiniol Jones
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Sonny Parker
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Simon Picone+3.8
- 10Andrea Masi-5.0
- 11Ezio Galon
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Alberto Sgarbi
- 15Andrea Marcato
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 20Pietro Travagli
- 21Paolo Buso
- 22Enrico Patrizio
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.