Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 19
26 July 2008Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith(c)
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Ryan Cross
- 14Peter Hynes
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 21Timana Tahu
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Rodney So'oialo(c)+1.2
- 7Dan Braid
- 8Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 9Andrew Ellis
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Richard Kahui
- 14Anthony Tuitavake
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Anthony Boric
- 19Sione Lauaki
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Stephen Donald
- 22Conrad Smith+4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.