Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 13
28 February 2009Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
- 12Paddy Wallace
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tom Court
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 22Geordan Murphy-2.5
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 5Nick Kennedy
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Joe Worsley+4.0
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Croft-2.9
- 19Luke Narraway
- 20Danny Care+3.0
- 21Andy Goode
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.