New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 16
18 July 2009Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 43 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Isaac Ross
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Stephen Donald
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Owen Franks-0.8
- 18Jason Eaton
- 19Kieran Read-6.0
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Joe Rokocoko-9.0
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Richard Brown
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Lachie Turner
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Ben Alexander-3.4
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20David Pocock+0.9
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.