Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 19
22 August 2009Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 15.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith(c)
- 8Richard Brown
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Lachie Turner
- 15James O'Connor-0.2
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Ben Alexander-3.4
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19David Pocock+0.9
- 20Will Genia+2.0
- 21Ryan Cross
- 22Peter Hynes
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Isaac Ross
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Aled de Malmanche
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Jason Eaton
- 19Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Stephen Donald
- 22Ma'a Nonu+0.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.