Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 11
6 February 2010Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Leo Cullen+1.0
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Kevin McLaughlin
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Keith Earls-4.9
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Quintin Geldenhuys
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Craig Gower
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Riccardo Bocchino
- 22Andrea Masi-5.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.