Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 24
13 February 2010Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 2.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Gareth Williams
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Andy Powell
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Sam Warburton
- 20Richie Rees
- 21Andrew Bishop
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Chris Cusiter(c)-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Rory Lamont+0.8
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Thom Evans
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 18Richie Gray-0.1
- 19Alan MacDonald
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Phil Godman
- 22Max Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.