Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 12
27 February 2010Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Craig Gower
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Andrea Masi-5.0
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Riccardo Bocchino
- 22Kaine Robertson-1.3
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Chris Cusiter(c)-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Phil Godman
- 22Nick de Luca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.