New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 10
7 August 2010Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 8.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.6 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Tom Donnelly
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Alby Mathewson
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Benson Stanley
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 3Salesi Ma'afu
- 4Dean Mumm+2.1
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Richard Brown
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Anthony Fainga'a
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Matt Hodgson
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Cameron Shepherd
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.