Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 23
11 September 2010Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 13.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Salesi Ma'afu
- 4Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Lachie Turner
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Huia Edmonds
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19Richard Brown
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Anthony Fainga'a
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Tom Donnelly
- 6Victor Vito+4.4
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Israel Dagg-2.1
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Anthony Boric
- 19Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Colin Slade+2.9
- 22Rene Ranger
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.