Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
11 – 13
5 February 2011Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 6.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Quintin Geldenhuys
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Andrea Masi-5.0
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 22Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Denis Leamy+5.0
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Fergus McFadden+2.9
- 15Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Leo Cullen+1.0
- 19Shane Jennings
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Paddy Wallace
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.