Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 8
19 March 2011Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Nathan Hines-2.0
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Rory Lawson-3.0
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Simon Danielli+0.1
- 12Sean Lamont+5.6
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Euan Murray+2.7
- 18Richie Vernon
- 19Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Nick de Luca
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Quintin Geldenhuys
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 22Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.