France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 9
19 March 2011Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 19:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 7.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Alexis Palisson
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Luc Ducalcon
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Alexandre Lapandry
- 20Julien Tomas
- 21Fabrice Estebanez
- 22Yoann Huget+2.1
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Matthew Rees(c)-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13Jamie Roberts
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Rob McCusker
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Morgan Stoddart
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.