New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 7
30 July 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Ben Franks-1.5
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Adam Thomson+2.1
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Zac Guildford
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Jarrad Hoeata
- 19Liam Messam+1.5
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Colin Slade+2.9
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
South Africa
- 1Dean Greyling
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Werner Kruger
- 4Gerhard Mostert
- 5Alistair Hargreaves
- 6Deon Stegmann
- 7Jean Deysel
- 8Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 11Lwazi Mvovo
- 12Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 13Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 14Bjorn Basson
- 15Morne Steyn-3.6
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Ryan Kankowski
- 19Ashley Johnson
- 20Charl McLeod
- 21Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 22Odwa Ndungane
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.