Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 20
27 August 2011Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 17.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 17.2 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Radike Samo-1.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Anthony Fainga'a
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Salesi Ma'afu
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Luke Burgess
- 22Rob Horne-3.3
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Adam Thomson+2.1
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Zac Guildford
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Andrew Ellis
- 21Colin Slade+2.9
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.