England v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 9
10 September 2011Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Delon Armitage
- 12Mike Tindall(c)+3.5
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20Ben Youngs+2.3
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Matt Banahan
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 9Nicolas Vergallo
- 10Felipe Contepomi(c)-2.0
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Gonzalo Tiesi
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Martin Scelzo
- 18Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 19Alejandro Campos
- 20Alfredo Lalanne
- 21Marcelo Bosch
- 22Juan Imhoff+8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 228m | Carry metres | 288m |
| 7 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 118 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Tackles made | 83 |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | — |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 15 | Scrums won | 15 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 5 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.