Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 10
8 October 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.4 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Ryan Jones+7.9
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | Possession | 58.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 385m | Carry metres | 438m |
| 14 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 117 | Passes | 181 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 170 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 14 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | — |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 20 | Scrums won | 20 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 86 | Rucks won | 116 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 7 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.