Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 23
5 February 2012Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 4.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Fergus McFadden+2.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Dave Kearney
Wales
- 1Rhys Gill
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Ryan Jones+7.9
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Andy Powell
- 19Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.