Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 3
10 March 2012Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins(c)+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Ryan Jones+7.9
- 20Rhys Webb+1.9
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Cornelius van Zyl
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Fabio Staibano
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 20Tobie Botes
- 21Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 22Giulio Toniolatti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.