Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 14
10 March 2012Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Keith Earls-4.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Mike McCarthy
- 19Shane Jennings
- 20Tomas O'Leary
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Fergus McFadden+2.9
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford(c)
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Ross Rennie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Greig Laidlaw
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Lee Jones
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Euan Murray+2.7
- 18Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 19Richie Vernon
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 22Matt Scott-5.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.