Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 6
17 March 2012Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Canale
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 18Joshua Furno
- 19Simone Favaro+10.6
- 20Manoa Vosawai
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Giulio Toniolatti
Scotland
- 1Jon Welsh
- 2Ross Ford(c)
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Ross Rennie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Greig Laidlaw
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Max Evans
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Euan Murray+2.7
- 18Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 19Richie Vernon
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 22Jack Cuthbert
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.