Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 18
3 February 2013Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 7.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.3 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Francesco Minto
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Tobie Botes
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
France
- 1Yannick Forestier
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape(c)+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 7Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Benjamin Fall
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Luc Ducalcon
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.