Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 13
9 March 2013Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Paddy Jackson
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Luke Marshall
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Fergus McFadden+2.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Stephen Archer
- 19Donncha O'Callaghan
- 20Iain Henderson-1.4
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Christophe Samson
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Luc Ducalcon
- 19Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 20Antonie Claassen
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.