Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 15
16 March 2013Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 5.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Paddy Jackson
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Luke Marshall
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Craig Gilroy
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Stephen Archer
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Iain Henderson-1.4
- 21Paul Marshall
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.