Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 54
5 October 2013Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 20 m
- Temperature
- 15.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.91402,-60.67450 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 4Julio Farias Cabello
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 7Pablo Matera-1.1
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Horacio Agulla
- 15Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
Replacements
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Ben Mowen
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Joseph Tomane
- 12Christian Leali'ifano
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Benn Robinson-6.6
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Sitaleki Timani
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Bernard Foley-0.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 2 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.