Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 7
8 March 2014Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Iain Henderson-1.4
- 7Chris Henry
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Rhys Ruddock
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Paddy Jackson
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Italy
- 1Alberto de Marchi
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Joshua Furno
- 7Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 8Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Michele Rizzo
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Antonio Pavanello
- 20Manoa Vosawai
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Andrea Masi-5.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.