England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 18
9 March 2014Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3David Wilson+7.0
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Billy Twelvetrees
- 13Luther Burrell
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Henry Thomas
- 19Dave Attwood
- 20Tom Johnson
- 21Lee Dickson
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Alex Goode-2.4
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Rhodri Jones
- 19Andrew Coombs
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Liam Williams+7.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.