Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
51 – 3
15 March 2014Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Rhodri Jones
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Adam Jones-6.2
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23James Hook-12.6
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Max Evans
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 14Dougie Fife
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Euan Murray+2.7
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 21Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 22Duncan Taylor
- 23Jack Cuthbert
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.