New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 9
6 September 2014McLean Park, Napier
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 11.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.5 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Joe Moody-0.9
- 18Ben Franks-1.5
- 19Jeremy Thrush
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Colin Slade+2.9
- 23Malakai Fekitoa
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Horacio Agulla
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Matias Cortese
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Rodrigo Baez
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Juan Imhoff+8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.