New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 10
13 September 2014Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.7 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Jeremy Thrush
- 6Steven Luatua
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Joe Moody-0.9
- 18Ben Franks-1.5
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Cory Jane-1.3
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 14Cornal Hendricks
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Marcel van der Merwe
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Warren Whiteley
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.