Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 25
13 September 2014Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 16.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Sam Carter
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Rob Horne-3.3
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Peter Betham
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16James Hanson
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Ben Alexander-3.4
- 19James Horwill+1.4
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Matt Hodgson
- 22Nic White-2.5
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Manuel Montero
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.