Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 17
4 October 2014Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 14.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 29.2 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Rodrigo Baez
- 7Benjamin Macome
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Horacio Agulla
- 14Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Matias Cortese
- 17Bruno Postiglioni
- 18Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Marcelo Bosch
- 23Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Sam Carter
- 5James Horwill+1.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Joseph Tomane
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Josh Mann-Rea
- 17Benn Robinson-6.6
- 18Ben Alexander-3.4
- 19Will Skelton+6.1
- 20Jake Schatz
- 21Matt Hodgson
- 22Nic White-2.5
- 23Rob Horne-3.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.