South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 25
4 October 2014Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 7Oupa Mohoje
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 14Cornal Hendricks
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Marcel van der Merwe
- 19Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 20Schalk Burger+6.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23JP Pietersen+0.8
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Jeremy Thrush
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Malakai Fekitoa
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Steven Luatua
- 20Liam Messam+1.5
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Colin Slade+2.9
- 23Ryan Crotty+8.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.